Day 43 in Carcassonne 🇫🇷
1st Day of the 7th week of confinement
The 7th week of confinement begins today. I am still puzzled and would like to know the real impact of the virus. I came across a nice article in a French newspaper which says:
“The 36,000 missing deaths: Searching for the real numbers in the coronavirus crisis.” On 21 April, the New York Times delivered a remarkable investigation, promising the “true” death toll of the epidemic in several European countries, but also in New York City. The starting point of the daily newspaper is simple: daily government communications do not report all the people who are dying because of the health crisis. In France, for example, the authorities have been slow to include the deaths of Ehpad in the “official” death toll, and still admit that they are unable to take into account deaths occurring at home.
To get an idea of the “real” death toll, the American daily has therefore relied on civil status data on all-cause mortality, in order to calculate the excess mortality since the beginning of the crisis compared to previous years. Let us take the case of France, for which the New York Times uses civil status data processed by INSEE. Between 9 March and 5 April, France recorded 32% more deaths than in previous years, i.e. 14,500 more than usual, whereas the country officially recorded 8,059 Covid deaths over the period. By subtraction, the New York Times deduced that about 6,500 deaths “are missing” from the official French death toll.
This difference is even higher in other countries, such as Spain, where, over the same period, more than 12,000 Covid deaths were recorded, while the excess mortality reached 20,000 (66%). That is 7,300 deaths “hidden” from the epidemic. In Ecuador, between 1 March and 15 April, the authorities announced 500 deaths due to Covid, but the excess mortality was 7,600. 7,100 deaths would therefore have been forgotten. The New York Times regularly updates this investigation, notably by adding countries to its count.
I guess the real event for today will be the debate on the Government’s de-confinement proposals which will start at 3pm.
For the second day running, this morning I have been doing some cardio stuff on my exercise bike.
The daily Dashboard
Information & News
Yet again extends the closure of its six major distribution centers in France. This time till until May 5th. That does not bother me too much as I tend to boycott Amazon. I still place the odd order when I cannot find what I need locally. I do buy on line directly with the manufacturers (usually French). The last example was a Lafuma chair for the garden which I ordered yesterday and was delivered a short while ago via DPD. Now that is service. On top of that, you are informed all the way by email and or SMS (maybe too much in fact).
▶︎ Digital tracing
This is going to be the next controversial discussion. That discussion is already well underway in Germany and I expect the same arguments pro / con will be presented in France. The proposed phone app is not yet (may something else will be said this afternoon) completely finished and will be on a volontary basis. I am very keen on private data and security but in this case I would go along with digital tracing.
▶︎ More news
I guess more news will be available as from 3pm this afternoon so watch this space.
I saw that the pasta making machine was out this morning along with the 00 flour. I’ll hazard a guess that it is what will be on the menu this lunch time.
Food & Drinks
Lancashire Hotpot from Guy
Take Away: Friday 1st May and Saturday 2nd May (evening). Bloc G offers ” Cuisine et Voyage ” around India. On the menu: Biryani lamb cooked with local and fresh products.
Order at 06 71 72 72 14.
Pics of the day
The dreaded Statistics
1. International Statistics: Top 10 countries according to the deaths count
Monday April 27th 2020
2. International Statistics: Percentage increase of deaths from one day to the other:
Monday April 27th 2020
3. International Statistics: Cases by country v population (1.000 cases or more only)
4. National Statistics: France follow-up
Based on this data, I predict a remaining confinement / de-confinement period of 78 days which would bring us to June 29th.
5. Regional Statistics: Occitanie & Aude