April 29th 2020

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Day 44 in Carcassonne 🇫🇷

2nd Day of the 7th week of confinement

 

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Notes  M. Edouard Philippe’s speech yesterday afternoon based on the report from Paris Match

The Prime Minister warns against “the risk of collapse” if the confinement were to last too long. “We are going to have to live with the virus,” Philippe warned, before dismissing “uncertain hypotheses”, such as that of the disappearance of the virus or that of a new medical breakthrough to combat the coronavirus. The risk of a second wave of infections “is a serious risk,” he stresses.

The Prime Minister promises “enough masks” by May 11th.

Masks in sufficient quantity on May 11th. Edouard Philippe promises to take into account the differences between territories, with “the possibility of adapting the national strategy”. He announces a “concerted effort” to “locally adapt” the measures. The Prime Minister then summarised the government strategy in three infinitive words: “Protect, test, isolate.” “The respect of barrier gestures will become even more important”, he insists, before tackling the thorny question of masks. He says he assumes the initial choice of “reserving masks for caregivers”. He repeated, as in previous speeches, that scientists have changed their minds on the issue of masks. He points out that the government is now encouraging the purchase of masks. “Far more masks are coming back into the country than the government is ordering,” he says. “Thanks to the mobilization of everyone, there will be enough masks in the country from 11 May,” he says. But he also calls on the French to make masks by hand.

Massive tests promised. Edouard Philippe addresses the subject of the tests. “At the exit of the confinement, we will be able to increase our tests,” he says. He promises 700,000 virological tests per week, to “implement screening campaigns”. “In a word, everything must be done to make the test easy and fast.” Anyone who has had contact with a person who tests positive will be identified. This “requires considerable resources,” admits Edouard Philippe. Brigades” will be set up in each department.

Isolation of patients, a key point of the plan. “Isolation, at last.” The Prime Minister says that “isolation is not a punishment” but “shelter”. It must be “explained, consented to and accompanied”. “Our objective is to rely largely on everyone’s civic-mindedness,” says Edouard Philippe. “It will be up to prefects and local authorities to define together the support plan for people placed in this form of isolation,” he says. Hotels will be requisitioned.

A debate on the StopCovid application. Edouard Philippe defends the usefulness of digital tools for tracking contact cases, citing in particular people encountered on public transport in cities. “When the application under development is up and running, we will organise a specific debate, followed by a specific vote,” he promises, referring to the StopCovid project.

May 11 is not engraved in marble. The Prime Minister remains cautious about the date of 11 May. “If, as 11 May approaches, it appears that the number of new daily cases is not within the expected range (…) then we should draw the consequences. (…) I say to the French, if the indicators are not there, we will not deconfine May 11th.” There will follow a phase “that will last until June 2… and continue until the summer.” “It is at the end of May that we will decide on the reopening of cafés and restaurants,” he adds. Data on the circulation of the virus will be examined for each department.

Gradual reopening for schools. Edouard Philippe looks at “everyday life”. He first addresses the question of school, with a “very gradual reopening” of kindergartens and elementary schools. From 18 May, in departments where the virus circulates little, the middle schools will follow, then at the end of May, a decision will be taken on the high schools. “Classes will reopen under strict sanitary conditions: no more than 15 pupils per class.” Teachers will receive masks, but masks will be banned for kindergarten children and not recommended for elementary school. “We will provide masks to middle school students who have been unable to obtain them,” explains Edouard Philippe. “Wearing the mask will be mandatory for early childhood professionals,” he also says. A Post Office platform will be set up to distribute masks to the general public from 30 April.

Telework encouraged. “Telework must be maintained wherever possible at least for the next three weeks (…) There is no before and after 11 May on this subject,” says Edouard Philippe. If telework is not possible, the Prime Minister encourages the adoption of staggered working hours.

Open shops, but notable exceptions. Businesses will reopen from 11 May, said Edouard Philippe, with the exception of cafés and restaurants. Markets will be authorized, but mayors or prefects may prohibit them. Shopkeepers will be free to refuse access to people who are not wearing masks. Shopping centres of more than 40,000 m2 will not be reopened so as not to encourage travel.

Major restrictions on transport. Wearing a mask will be compulsory on transport from 11 May. During peak hours, transport will be “reserved for those who work”. “This means, for example, that the capacity of the Paris metro will be (…) drastically reduced compared to its normal capacity. This means, for example, that the capacity of the Parisian metro will be (…) drastically reduced compared to its normal capacity. It will be necessary (…) to condemn one seat out of two, to encourage, by markings on the ground, the good distribution on the platforms, to prepare to limit the flows in case of affluence”, indicates Edouard Philippe. The Prime Minister is keen to discourage travel, citing the Ascension weekend on 21 May: “I am telling the French people clearly that this is not the time to leave their department to go away for the weekend.” Unauthenticated traffic will be allowed except within 100 km of home. “We will continue to reduce the offer, to require a compulsory reservation on all trains -GV or not, to discourage travel between departments,” says Edouard Philippe.

Beaches closed, parks open… but not everywhere. Beaches will remain “inaccessible to the public at least until June 1st”. Parks and gardens “may only be opened in departments where the virus is not actively circulating”.

No events with more than 5,000 participants before September

Still no concerts, theatres or cinemas. The world of culture will remain largely confined: “Because they can function more easily if they comply with health regulations, media libraries, libraries and small museums, which are so important for the cultural life of our territories, will be able to reopen their doors from 11 May,” but on the other hand, “the big museums, which attract a large number of visitors from outside their catchment area, cinemas, theatres and concert halls, where people stay in the same place in a closed environment, will not be able to reopen,” says Edouard Philippe. More broadly, “major sporting and cultural events, especially festivals, major trade shows, all events that bring together more than 5,000 participants and as such are subject to a declaration at the prefecture and must be organized well in advance” will not be able to be held before September.

The practice of sports is allowed, but very restricted. “It will be possible, with the help of good weather, to practice an individual outdoor sporting activity, obviously going beyond the current kilometre barrier and respecting the rules of physical distance,” says Edouard Philippe. On the other hand, sports in covered areas, team sports and contact sports remain banned. Furthermore, “the 2019-2020 season of professional sports, particularly football, will not be able to resume”, the Prime Minister emphasises.

The supervision of gatherings on the public highway. “Gatherings on the public highway or in private places will be limited to 10 people,” said Philippe. “Generally speaking, we must avoid gatherings that are so many opportunities for the virus to spread. (…) While waiting for better days, town halls will continue to propose, except in emergencies, the postponement of weddings,” he said.

Open places of worship, limited funeral ceremonies. “Funeral ceremonies will obviously remain authorized” after May 11, but “as today, within the limit of 20 people,” says Edouard Philippe. “The cemeteries will be open to the public again from May 11,” he adds. “Places of worship will be able to continue to remain open. But I think it’s legitimate to ask them not to organise ceremonies before June 2nd,” he said.


The daily Dashboard

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France

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Occitanie

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JJ’s prediction

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Down 5 days from the previous day

In my previous working life, among other responsibilities, I was responsible for the world wide demand forecast. I tested many forecasting tools and statistical methods. I visited large multi national companies and exchanged ideas. It was fun. As a result, I find it hard to resist planning and my prediction till the complete end of the lockdown in France is 73 days as of today (down 5 days since yesterday) bringing the date to July 11th just in time for the National Day.


Information & News

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▶︎ Red or Green departement?

Screen Shot 2020-04-29 at 10.21.15.pngThe status of the “departements” will be identified into Red or Green on May 7th. Greens will be allowed to start the progressive de-confinement, Reds will remained confined with possibly additional restrictions. To this end, three criteria will be studied:

  • in which departments the circulation of the virus remains active
  • hospital intensive care capacity remains over loaded
  • local testing and contact detection system is not sufficiently prepared

Let us hope l’Aude will pass all 3 criteria.

▶︎Masks

Agathe can get hold of masks (minimum of 2) if you are interested. She needs to know before tomorrow Thursday and she will order them. Expected delivery 10 days later. They are tested USA chirurgical. The price is between 2.50€ and 3€.

▶︎ Masks

The four logos introduced by the government serve as certification for masks for the general public. The mention “guaranteed filtration” attests that the mask has passed the tests carried out by the Directorate General of Armament.

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The logo in the shape of a circle attests to the filtration capacity of micro-particles in particular. It is available in four different versions, depending on the chosen durability: “tested 5 washes”, “tested 10 washes”, “tested 20 washes” and “tested 30 washes”.

▶︎ Certificate of exemption

Will no longer be required for travel within the new allowable limit of 100 km but a must if you go from one department to the other or from region to region which is only allowed for professonial reasons and “must” family reasons.

▶︎ Departements and region

Will be classified Green or Red. Only the green departements will be allowed to deconfine as stated earlier.

Local mayors and police prefects have far more power to decide what is best locally. So although we have the guidelines from central we need to see what our local administration will decide and allow.

▶︎ 100 km radius

I immediately checked where the soon to be allowed travel within 100 km would take me and most of us in Carcassonne. A day at the seaside even if the beaches are closed sounds like a good idea especially mid May when the weather is even more pleasant.

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Food & Drinks

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Old Fashioned Cocktail

Have I mentioned before that I like whiskys as well whiskeys?


Fun

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The daily selection

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The dreaded Statistics

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1. International Statistics: Top 10 countries according to the deaths count

Tuesday April 28th 2020

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Monday April 27th 2020

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2. International Statistics: Percentage increase of deaths from one day to the other: 

Tuesday April 28th 2020

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3. International Statistics: Cases by country v population (1.000 cases or more only)

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4. National Statistics: France follow-up

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5.  Regional Statistics: Occitanie & Aude

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