May 1st 2020

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Day 46 in Carcassonne 🇫🇷

4th Day of the 7th week of confinement

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Today is the 1st of May Bank Holiday. I am not convinced it will be as different a day as the ones we have enjoyed over the past 6weeks or so.

The provisional version of the de-confinement map of France based on two of the three criteria: active circulation of the virus and hospital stress in the intensive care unit. Data regarding the  3rd criteria of the availability of tests is not available yet. As a reminder, on May 11th there will be only 2 colours Green or Red.

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Thursday April 30th – 7pm


The daily Dashboard

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France

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Occitanie

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JJ’s prediction

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63 days or June 26 till the end of the lockdown in France


Information & News

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▶︎ Occitanie

It is not everyday one hears/reads news from the Region but there is a statement on their web page this morning:

“For a safe recovery, the Region is taking its responsibilities

Everyone wonders if they will be able to get a mask for deconfinement. In Occitania, the answer is “yes”. Masks will be distributed free of charge to all inhabitants. To ensure this and to make up for national shortcomings, the Region and the Departments have ordered 16 million masks.

For high schools, it will be necessary to wait until the end of May to know when they will reopen. The Region is ready for this resumption. Complete cleaning of the premises, orders for hydro-alcoholic gel, washable masks… Everything is being done to ensure that the students and staff can return to school in the best possible conditions. In the meantime, the Region is supporting the educational continuity of as many people as possible thanks to loRdi* and the regional ENT*.

Sanitary measures are also deployed in transport. The Region will provide masks to users of school transport and TER subscribers. It will provide a health kit for drivers. Gradually the transport will operate normally: on 18 May for regular lines, on 25 May for rail and according to the resumption timetable for school transport.

(*) I do not know what these initials mean but I shall investigate.

▶︎ Festival de Carcassonne

If the programme, up to and including 14 July, was cancelled very quickly after the last intervention of Emmanuel Macron, the cultural centre and the mayor of Carcassonne make us wait for their position until now. And Edouard Philippe’s intervention on Tuesday 28 April at the National Assembly did not end the wait. The threshold of 5,000 people, mentioned by the Prime Minister, is being “studied” by the Carcassonne town hall. The concerts scheduled from 15 to 30 July are maintained for the time being.

▶︎ Masks

By Kate Plummer 

Yesterday, Scottish leader Nicola Sturgeon advised Scots to wear face masks when shopping and travelling to minimise the risk of spreading coronavirus. Scotland is not the first country to issue such guidance and will not be the last.

Indeed, more than 30 countries have mandated the use of face coverings outdoors for the public during the pandemic. England however, much like with testing and implementing the lockdown in the first place, has dragged its heels and has been slow to suggest Brits follow the same measures.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, given the geographical origins of the virus and the more widespread use of masks in the continent, the face mask arms race started in Asia. Provinces in China made them mandatory and in South Korea, the government started purchasing 50% of the nation’s manufactured masks in February, selling them at discounted prices to meet demand.

In mid-March, the Czech Republic became the first European country to make the masks mandatory. Meanwhile, on 3rd April, the US and Singapore advised citizens to wear masks when they leave their homes – after the WHO U-turned on its previous position that they’re not useful. Authorities in Lombardy, the Italian region worst affected by coronavirus, were also quick to act – obliging citizens to wear face masks in public as early as 5th April. As of yesterday, masks are mandatory in all areas of the country. On 11th April, the Spanish government started distributing face masks at train and metro stations to allow some non-essential staff to return to work. While their use isn’t compulsory, it is advised to use them even if they are homemade. And on 27th April, Germany made the use of face masks mandatory on public transport and, in most regions, in shops. Authorities in Portugal have also said they will mandate face masks in open spaces if and when their lockdown is relaxed. And today, French Prime Minister Edouard Philippe has said the same – face masks will be mandatory on public transport and in secondary schools when it starts easing its coronavirus lockdown on 11th May.

England, therefore, is an international outlier yet again. Yippee.

▶︎ Statistics

April 30th, Article in “Der Spiegel” (translated)

There are also uncertainties in the number of deaths, especially in the recording of the ultimate cause of death of people with multiple pre-existing conditions. How do you count the case of an elderly patient with pre-existing conditions who suffers a stroke and is admitted to hospital and is found to be an asymptomatic sars-CoV-2 carrier?

As it is not always possible to clarify quickly and clearly in such cases whether covid-19 disease was also the ultimate cause of death, the RKI (Robert Koch Institute) reports the number of all deaths of people with a proven sars-CoV-2 infection. The health authorities then speak of “deaths associated with covid-19 disease”, which is different from “deaths due to covid-19 disease”. This may lead to an over-reporting of corona deaths. People who have died from their previous illness, but who were also infected with the corona virus, are included.

At the same time, there are also constellations in which under-coverage can occur. It is not possible to carry out a test on every deceased person. And in autopsies, the virus may no longer be detectable, even though the person has died from the infection. Often only the so-called excess mortality shows the full extent of the pandemic. It describes that the number of people who die in a certain period of time is higher than would normally be expected at this time of year. In Lombardy, Madrid and New York City, for example, around four times as many people died during the corona pandemic than usual. However, only in New York City did the additional number of deaths match the official Covid 19 casualty figures. In Lombardy and Madrid, the official statistics showed a considerable under-recording of Covid-19 deaths.

Despite such uncertainties, international comparisons based on death figures are probably more reliable than comparisons of infected figures. The distortions there due to the number of unreported cases and the different testing practices are likely to be greater.

The number of deaths is less suitable for assessing the current infection dynamics. This is because in the case of a fatal course of the disease, there is an average of about 20 days between infection and death.

 


Food & Drinks

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New recipe: Aubergines with Curry & Honey from Caroll


Fun

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The daily selection

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The dreaded Statistics

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1. International Statistics: Top 10 countries according to the deaths count

Thursday April 30th 2020

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Wednesday April 29th 2020

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2. International Statistics: Percentage increase of deaths from one day to the other: 

Thursday April 30th 2020

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3. International Statistics: Cases by country v population (1.000 cases or more only)

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4. National Statistics: France follow-up

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5.  Regional Statistics: Occitanie & Aude

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I have added cases in reanimation in comparison to cases in hospital

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Occitanie


 

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