Day 212 – 36th day of de-confinement phase IV in France

Fairly negative news across the country and Europe this past few days. The President and the Prime Minister both made appeals on television earlier in the week. New curfew rules have been announced in the following 8 metropole areas: Grenoble, Lyon, Aix-Marseille, Lille, Rouen, Toulouse, Montpellier). The state of health emergency has also been declared all over France.

As a result, local measures are being taken. As far as Carcassonne and the Aude departement is concerned, the prefect made the following announcement yesterday.

PRESS RELEASE
Carcassonne, 16 October 2020

➢ The state of health emergency implies new measures as of October 17
The Prime Minister has declared a state of health emergency throughout the country from Saturday 17 October 2020. The current health data confirm a worrying increase in traffic of the virus at the national level and in the department and the need to adapt our means of control, in order to preserve the health system and particularly hospital intensive care units. A state of health emergency automatically implies measures that apply throughout the territory as of Saturday 17 October 2020 :

gatherings of more than 6 people on the public highway or in places open to the public will be prohibited, with the exception of professional gatherings or meetings of a professional nature, protest events ;
all celebrations (ceremonies, weddings, parties, festive or associative events…) and events leading to the removal of the mask (refreshment stands, catering) in the halls are prohibited.
all restaurants and pubs will apply the reinforced sanitary protocol, which provides for
in particular the limitation of the number of clients per table to 6 and the registration of the clients’ names;
in all establishments receiving seated public (cinemas, circuses, bleachers of establishments, etc.), the number of customers per table is limited to 6.
sports facilities, conference rooms, auditoriums…) the rule of one out of every two seats continues to apply between two people or between two families or groups of friends now limited to six people maximum.
➢ A deteriorating health situation that is gradually spreading to the older age groups.

The departmental incidence rate continues to rise dynamically: in one week, it has gone from 73.2 to 117.3, an increase of 44 points. The positivity rate increased from 5.5% to 8.3%, an increase of 2.8 points. Thus, the CPAM of the Aude region counted over the last two days an increase of 2.8 points. 100 new positive cases per day, generating nearly 300 contact cases, levels never before reached up to present.
Health indicators for the 20-30 age group remain at a high level, reaching at the last update 233 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. Even more worryingly, this higher contamination among young people begins to spread to the next higher age group, the 40-50 year olds, for whom the rate. The incidence now stands at 164 cases per 100,000 inhabitants.

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In our Aude departement, there are now 16 (10 men, 6 women) people hospitalised as of yesterday evening.

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OCCITANIA

The situation is getting worse. The number of hospitalised people jumped in 1 week by 26% and now is at 715. This is 67% of the peak registered during the 1st wave on April 4th earlier this year.

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Information, news and tips

✒︎ Cases among the elderly

Public Health France (SPF) has accustomed us to alert messages, but this one is a little stronger than usual. In its weekly epidemiological update on Thursday, October 15, the health agency warns of a “very worrying increase in the number of cases among the elderly.

SPF bases its analysis in particular on the incidence rate, i.e. the number of new cases per 100,000 inhabitants over seven days. It is 103 in people aged 65-74 and 115 in those over 75 years of age in week 41 (October 5-11). In both of these groups, this represents a 64% increase over the previous week. And we are therefore above 100, the threshold for this age group, which can cause an area to be classified as a high or maximum alert zone.

✒︎ Curfew: Travel certificate
The document will be necessary to travel every evening after 9:00 pm in the curfew areas. Here is the link to the document.

✒︎ New cases in Europe

The number of new daily cases of Covid-19 infection in Europe was 121,227 compared to 84,400 the previous week, an increase of 44%.

India remains the country with the highest number of new infections this week (an average of 67,349 cases per day) ahead of the United States (53,746) and Brazil (35,235). While the trend is declining in India and Brazil, it is deteriorating in the United States (18%).

Next come France (19,714, 47%), the United Kingdom (15,972, 32%), Russia (13,437, 26%) and Argentina (13,242, 1%).

✒︎ Incidence rate by department
The incidence rate corresponds to the number of people testing positive for Covid-19 over one week, reduced to 100,000 inhabitants. The vigilance threshold (in orange) is reached if more than 10 people are infected per 100,000 inhabitants. Beyond 50 infected persons per 100,000 inhabitants, the alert threshold is reached (in red).

✒︎Reproduction factor by region
The effective reproductive factor, or R, represents the average number of people a patient infects. An R of 2.2, for example, means that 10 patients will infect an average of 22 people. When the R rises above 1 (orange), the epidemic develops. A critical threshold is reached when it exceeds 1.5 (in red).