Living through a pandemic
in the south of France
385 days in Carcassonne since
1st lockdown in March 2020
▫️ DAILY AND WEEKLY STATISTICS HERE .
▫️ The situation continues to deteriorate in the Occitanie region, particularly in the intensive care units where the capacity will be increased.
This Tuesday in the Aude, the threshold of 300 deaths was reached with three new victims of Covid in 24 hours in the departement.
139 people were hospitalised this Tuesday evening (-11): 18 in intensive care (-2), 80 in conventional hospitalisation (-9) and 41 in follow-up or long-term care.
● REVIEW – © Felicia Sideris LCI & translated by © J2S
With the new confinement that has started for the whole territory, the question arises as to the impact of this measure in the 16 departments confined from 19 March.
They serve as a compass. 16 departments have experienced this third type of containment before anyone else. Before the sanitary measures were put in place throughout the country on Saturday 4 April to combat the spread of the coronavirus, they had already been in force in several departments for over two weeks.
To find out whether these measures will bear fruit at national level within “seven to ten days” as Emmanuel Macron hopes, we can therefore look at the situation in these primo-confined departments.
The Verifiers, a fact-checking team common to the editorial offices of TF1, LCI and LCI.fr
Incidence and positivity on the decline
As a reminder, the first departments to experience a new lock-up were the eight in the Île-de-France region, the five in Hauts-de-France, as well as Eure, Seine-Maritime and Alpes-Maritimes. However, the virus seems to be declining in these areas. By observing the data from Santé publique France relayed by the CovidTracker tool, and reproduced below, we can easily see that the incidence rate has stabilised. Or even that it is falling, although it is still too early to say.
After an explosion in the incidence rate, which was close to 600 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the confined departments, this indicator began to stagnate on 27 March. That is to say, eight days after the confinement. As a reminder, specialists estimate that it takes between seven and ten days to see the effects of a measure.
This immobility lasted for almost a week, before starting to fall. In one week, this rate, which represents the number of positive cases per 100,000 inhabitants over the past week, fell by 0.75% in the 16 departments. On the other hand, the situation worsened (+6.8%) in the rest of the country between 26 March and 2 April.
As a result, on Friday, the incidence rate had fallen back below the 600-case mark, to 590 per 100,000. This is still a very high threshold. The strongest fall took place in the Alpes-Maritimes where the indicator had returned to its levels of 20 January, even if it should be recalled that a weekend confinement was already in force on the Maralpine coast.
The incidence rate in the 16 departments confined from 19 March, data stopped on 2 April 2021 – CovidTracker
It should be noted that this decline in the incidence rate is not linked to a possible decline in screening, which remained at the same level. As a result, we can see that the rate of positive tests has fallen from an average of 9.88% in the confined departments to 9% on Friday. A drop that is also found at national level, but less spectacularly, with a decrease from 7.63% to 7.44%.
No conclusion possible at this stage: Although the levels remain alarming, above the symbolic threshold of 500 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, the evolution of these indicators suggests that the situation is improving.
However, there are two points to be aware of. Firstly, these observations are still too fragile to speak of a real change in trend. We will have to wait for the Santé publique France report and its consolidated data to know for sure. Secondly, correlation does not mean causation: the population may, by itself, have regulated its habits in the face of the increased circulation of Covid-19 and its media coverage.
It is therefore impossible for the moment to link the drop in these data directly to the entry into force of a partial containment on 19 March.
● Covid-19: The number of patients hospitalised for a Covid-19 infection has passed the 30,000 mark in France. It is necessary to go back to 24 November 2020 to find such a level. The situation in French hospitals is getting worse by the day. According to the latest government figures published on Tuesday 6 April 2021, the 30,000 mark of Covid-19 patients hospitalised has been passed.
Exactly 30,639 people are currently being treated in hospital. We have to go back to 24 November last year to find a similar level. In intensive care, the curve also continues to rise, with 5,626 Covid-19 patients to date, compared to 5,433 the day before.
Nice and sunny weather today in Carcassonne but remaining chilly at night.
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