● Is France (finally) seeing the end of the tunnel of the third wave? While the Minister of Health Olivier Véran had indicated on Monday on TF1 that he hoped to reach the peak of contaminations within a week, the latest indicators could well prove it. For several days, the epidemic curve has not increased, and is even slightly decreasing in the departments under reinforced braking measures since mid-March.
● VACCINATION NEWS On Thursday, France passed the mark of 10 million people vaccinated with at least one dose against Covid-19 and is a week ahead of target. It took 3,5 months to get there. The next target is double that in other words 20 million people and that needs to be done in just over 5 weeks from now. It is something I see as positive news. Target was set and target was achieved despite shortages of vaccines. The net target will not be so simple. We need an averge of at least 270.000 1st dose vaccinations daily + of course all the second doses due. Interesting times.
On my data page I show only 9.818.102 which is the official and cross-checked figure for D-1 i.e in this case at close of business on April 7th.
The 533,302 people under the age of 55 who received a first dose of AstraZeneca‘s vaccine between Saturday 6 February and Saturday 13 March will have to receive their second injection with a messenger RNA vaccine, i.e. those produced by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna, the French health authority (HAS) recommended on Friday 9 April.
● TAXATION Here we go! We can now check and validate our tax return for the year 2020.
▫️ One again the number of new cases could not be communicated due to a technical incident, according to Santé Publique France.
The same story as far as vaccinations are concerned although on this score there is “unofficial” data.
It would appear however that there are now 9.561.733 people vaccinated with the 1st dose and 3.227.796 with a 2nd dose. Let us not forget that the target is 10.000.000 by April 15th which should be reached fairly easily despite the fact that more and more people are refusing the AstraZeneca vaccine.
More countries are now restricting the use of the AstraZeneca vaccine to people of a certain age. Belgium reserves that vaccine for those over 55, Italy and Spain for those over 60
I shall update the data page in the course of the day hoping that the data becomes available by lunchtime.
● INSEE – Latest statistics
Due to the Covid-19 epidemic, mortality was exceptional in 2020 with almost 669,000 deaths from all causes, i.e. 56,000 more than in 2019 (+9%). Such an increase in mortality has not been recorded in France for 70 years. In particular, this increase is much higher than that observed during the severe flu and heatwave episodes of previous years. France is in a median position among European countries.
● NOT SO GOOD NEWS
I have had news yesterday of 3 friends in the Bandol area who were tested positive a week ago. One of them was transferred to hospital yesterday. It brings this closer to home since we visited them briefly for lunch one month ago.
● MAIN SQUARE
One can now see what it will look like on place Carnot in Carcassonne. Obviously the roads around the square, on one side for the time being, are disappearing.
● CINEMA
20 years ago
Yesterday marked the 20th anniversary of this cult film coming out on the screens. If you have not seen it yet, it is a must.
● WEATHER
Brilliant sunshine today. Not a day to stay inside.
▫️ The situation continues to deteriorate in the Occitanie region, particularly in the intensive care units where the capacity will be increased.
This Tuesday in the Aude, the threshold of 300 deaths was reached with three new victims of Covid in 24 hours in the departement.
139 people were hospitalised this Tuesday evening (-11): 18 in intensive care (-2), 80 in conventional hospitalisation (-9) and 41 in follow-up or long-term care.
With the new confinement that has started for the whole territory, the question arises as to the impact of this measure in the 16 departments confined from 19 March. They serve as a compass. 16 departments have experienced this third type of containment before anyone else. Before the sanitary measures were put in place throughout the country on Saturday 4 April to combat the spread of the coronavirus, they had already been in force in several departments for over two weeks.
To find out whether these measures will bear fruit at national level within “seven to ten days” as Emmanuel Macron hopes, we can therefore look at the situation in these primo-confined departments.
The Verifiers, a fact-checking team common to the editorial offices of TF1, LCI and LCI.fr
Incidence and positivity on the decline
As a reminder, the first departments to experience a new lock-up were the eight in the Île-de-France region, the five in Hauts-de-France, as well as Eure, Seine-Maritime and Alpes-Maritimes. However, the virus seems to be declining in these areas. By observing the data from Santé publique France relayed by the CovidTracker tool, and reproduced below, we can easily see that the incidence rate has stabilised. Or even that it is falling, although it is still too early to say.
After an explosion in the incidence rate, which was close to 600 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the confined departments, this indicator began to stagnate on 27 March. That is to say, eight days after the confinement. As a reminder, specialists estimate that it takes between seven and ten days to see the effects of a measure.
This immobility lasted for almost a week, before starting to fall. In one week, this rate, which represents the number of positive cases per 100,000 inhabitants over the past week, fell by 0.75% in the 16 departments. On the other hand, the situation worsened (+6.8%) in the rest of the country between 26 March and 2 April.
As a result, on Friday, the incidence rate had fallen back below the 600-case mark, to 590 per 100,000. This is still a very high threshold. The strongest fall took place in the Alpes-Maritimes where the indicator had returned to its levels of 20 January, even if it should be recalled that a weekend confinement was already in force on the Maralpine coast.
The incidence rate in the 16 departments confined from 19 March, data stopped on 2 April 2021 – CovidTracker It should be noted that this decline in the incidence rate is not linked to a possible decline in screening, which remained at the same level. As a result, we can see that the rate of positive tests has fallen from an average of 9.88% in the confined departments to 9% on Friday. A drop that is also found at national level, but less spectacularly, with a decrease from 7.63% to 7.44%.
No conclusion possible at this stage: Although the levels remain alarming, above the symbolic threshold of 500 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, the evolution of these indicators suggests that the situation is improving.
However, there are two points to be aware of. Firstly, these observations are still too fragile to speak of a real change in trend. We will have to wait for the Santé publique France report and its consolidated data to know for sure. Secondly, correlation does not mean causation: the population may, by itself, have regulated its habits in the face of the increased circulation of Covid-19 and its media coverage.
It is therefore impossible for the moment to link the drop in these data directly to the entry into force of a partial containment on 19 March.
● Covid-19: The number of patients hospitalised for a Covid-19 infection has passed the 30,000 mark in France. It is necessary to go back to 24 November 2020 to find such a level. The situation in French hospitals is getting worse by the day. According to the latest government figures published on Tuesday 6 April 2021, the 30,000 mark of Covid-19 patients hospitalised has been passed.
Exactly 30,639 people are currently being treated in hospital. We have to go back to 24 November last year to find a similar level. In intensive care, the curve also continues to rise, with 5,626 Covid-19 patients to date, compared to 5,433 the day before.
● WEATHER
Nice and sunny weather today in Carcassonne but remaining chilly at night.
▫️ Last day of relative freedom. The 3rd confinement period is starting this evening even if a certain relaxation of the travel rules is expected for this Easter weekend. Inter regional travel will be allowed till Monday evening giving the chance for some to leave towns for the next 4 weeks.
For me, the worse is the maximum 10km rule. I shall have to find possible walks within that radius.
▫️ POLICE
In the Aude department, the police officers of the prefecture city are the most affected by the wave of coronavirus that is sweeping through the services. Overall, according to the figures communicated by the police unions, 17 positive cases are currently recorded among police officers in the Aude, as well as around thirty placed in isolation because they are considered to be Covid risk cases.
▫️ SELF-TESTS
Self-tests for Covid-19 will be available in pharmacies from 12 April, Health Minister Olivier Véran announced on Friday in an interview with online media outlet Brut. “It will be a useful complement” to other methods, he said. These medical devices, which allow people to test themselves at home with a result in 30 minutes, will not be available in supermarkets, the minister said.
▫️ NEW VARIANT
A new variant has been idenfied in India and immediately indexed by my friend Gérard. It is quite a thorny one.
▫️ GREEN CERTIFICATE
Don’t say “vaccine passport” anymore but “green certificate”. The EU Commission has given itself until June to develop a “green certificate” for travel, and perhaps more depending on the country.
Very pleasant walk today in an area we have been to before. This time however we started from the very village of Leucate. and made our way up to the Plateau de Leucate.
It is not a hard walk even if the ground is fairly uneven due to stones in many places.
We only saw one snake which disappeared quickly.
It is almost impossible to get lost once on the trail. Just follow the yellow markings or indeed the plaster emblems which tend to indicate on which trail you are. When you approach the top you can smell the sea which suddenly appears around a corner.
Best place to have a rest and a bite to eat
Followed by a nice and easy walk down back to town along the “Chemin du Berger”
▫️ Following the allocution from the President M. E. Macron on Wednesday evening, it is important to list the announced restrictions.
Therefore here follows the summary
● Travel restrictions extended to the whole country This is the end of “localised” measures. “No more regions are spared”, assured the Head of State, insisting on the power of the English variant. As a result, the restriction on daytime travel, which since 18 March has concerned 19 departments in the red zone, will be extended to the whole of metropolitan France. From Saturday evening, and for four weeks, it will no longer be possible to travel within a perimeter of more than 10 km, unless there is a compelling reason to do so, the Head of State announced.
A certificate will not be required for travel within a 10 km radius during the day. During curfew hours, from 7pm to 6am, or for travel exceeding 10km, a certificate will be required.
● Tolerance to travel during the Easter weekend The French will be able to choose their place of confinement. Whether it is a change of region or a return to France from a foreign country, there will be tolerance for travel during the Easter weekend. On the other hand, “controls and sanctions” will be “reinforced on the public highway to limit gatherings” and to “control the consumption of alcohol”.
● Schools closed for three weeks, spring break unified Distance learning is back. One year after an unprecedented closure of schools, schools will no longer receive pupils next week. Until Saturday 10 April, classes for primary, secondary and high school students will be held “remotely”. The spring holidays will then begin on 12 April for a period of two weeks for all zones. Finally, from 26 April and for one week, classes will resume in ‘face-to-face’ mode in primary schools and kindergartens, and remotely in secondary schools. On 3 May, schools will reopen with adapted class sizes.
Students will still be able to attend university for one day a week.
● All measures maintained for parents who have to look after their children As a consequence of the closure of crèches, schools and colleges for three weeks, the President recalled that the parents concerned who have to look after their children and cannot telework “will be entitled to partial unemployment”. For employees, shopkeepers, the self-employed, entrepreneurs and companies, “all the measures will be extended”.
● Vaccination extended to over 50’s on May15th “Vaccinate, vaccinate, vaccinate without respite.” Once again, Emmanuel Macron wants to speed up on vaccination by setting new targets: people over 60 will be able to be vaccinated on 16 April, those over 50 will have access to it on 15 May. Finally, all French people who wish to be vaccinated will be able to do so from mid-June. A “specific strategy” will also be adopted for “all the most exposed professions”, such as teachers and the police.
● Additional intensive care reinforcements Emmanuel Macron praised “the remarkable action of our carers, in particular the resuscitation and critical care teams”, and announced that they “are and will be supported in the coming days by additional reinforcements”. The number of intensive care beds, which has already been increased to 7,000, should reach just over 10,000, he added.
● All non-essential shops closed in France As a result of the extension to the whole of France of the restrictive measures imposed in 19 departments, all “shops will be closed in the whole of metropolitan France according to the list already defined”. Only those businesses considered essential will remain open. I translated the list of essential shops below.
● Culture, bars, restaurants… A gradual reopening from “mid-May”. Places of culture and sport, bars, restaurants, cafes, shops… Thanks to the “efforts of April” and the “deployment of vaccination”, Emmanuel Macron wishes to “gradually reopen the country” from “mid-May”. “We are going to build, between mid-May and the beginning of the summer, a progressive reopening schedule”, with “strict rules”, he promises, in order to “gradually return to normal life”.
● Mistakes” made but “we did well” not to reconfine The head of state admitted having made “mistakes” in his management of the health crisis. But on the strategy of not reconfining in January, unlike several European countries, Emmanuel Macron considers that he has “done well”. “We have allowed hundreds of thousands of workers to keep their heads above water without ever losing control of the epidemic,” he said. Before adding that “believing in the responsibility of the French” is “never a gamble”.
▫️ ESSENTIAL SHOPS The lists of which keeps being revised. The latest version of shops allowed to open is as follows:
∙Food shops (supermarkets, bakeries, butchers, fruit shops, fish shops, wine shops, frozen food shops, etc.); ∙Chocolate and confectionery shops ; ∙Mini-markets, supermarkets, multi-stores, hypermarkets; ∙Car garages and technical inspection centres for motor vehicles and agricultural machinery; ∙Motor vehicle equipment dealers ; ∙Shops selling motor vehicles and agricultural machinery by appointment; ∙Sale and repair of motorbikes and cycles; ∙Supplies for agricultural holdings; ∙Book, record and video shops; ∙Musical instrument repair and maintenance services; ∙Plant and flower shops; ∙Shoemakers; ∙Hairdressing salons; ∙Banks and insurance companies; ∙Petrol stations and their associated shops for the sale of take-away foodstuffs (excluding alcoholic products) and sanitary facilities open to road users; ∙Shops selling computer equipment or repairs (computers, software), telephony and other telecommunication equipment; ∙Shops selling building materials and equipment, hardware, paint, wood, metal and glass; trade in textiles (haberdasheries, knitting yarn shops, fabric shops, etc.); ∙Dry cleaners, retail and wholesale laundries; ∙Stationers and newsagents; ∙Pharmacies and medical and orthopaedic shops ∙Opticians; ∙Pet shops, seed and fertiliser shops; ∙Tobacconists (sale of tobacco), electronic cigarette shops, vaping equipment; ∙Rental and leasing of : – motor vehicles ; – other machinery, equipment and goods ; – agricultural machinery and equipment; – construction machinery and equipment; ∙Wholesale trade ; ∙Furniture storage; ∙Property viewing (the purchase, sale or rental of a principal residence).
Multi-store outlets, supermarkets, hypermarkets and other sales outlets with a surface area of more than 400 m2, authorised to open, may only receive the public between 6 a.m. and 7 p.m. for the activities mentioned above and for the sale of toiletries, hygiene, cleaning and childcare products. These shops are allowed to maintain a take-away (“click and collect”) and home delivery activity during these hours.
Supermarkets and shopping centres of more than 10,000 m² are closed.
In covered markets, only food shops or shops selling plants, flowers, seeds, fertilisers, seeds and seedlings of fruit or vegetable species are allowed.
▫️ 10KM Radius
Here is the usual link to calculate the 10km radius. From our house it looks like that:
▫️ STORK NEWS
According to the web cam Wednesday afternoon, we now have 5 eggs. Could it be Easter time?
▫️ NEWS FROM ACROSS THE POND 🇺🇸
▫️ SATIRE
▫️ WEATHER
The weather looks quite pleasant in the coming days. I think a trip to the seaside before the travel restrictions come into effect this weekend is in order.
I had no problems reading the book from Florence which I went through in one go non-stop. But then again I have always like real life stories about the sea and sailing.
This one, although quite interesting, took me a little longer. It is mainly about politics and is written by the current Finance minister with quite a few insights on the decision processes in particular regarding the COVID-19 economic disaster and rescue package. It also has a few anecdotes on some country leaders.
I finished it this afternoon.
I had no difficulties whatsoever to go through these 2 comic books. Excellent stuff.
I went earlier to the book shop as well as the comic book shop to try and find some new material. Here is what I came home with.
and on the comics side, a new trilogy…
Let’s see how long it takes me to go throough these
